It’s Election Day in America and a historic turnout election is expected today, according to our final pre-election polling, which tracks the state of the race through November 2, 2020.
“We’re expecting a high turnout for the 2020 election that’s potentially unprecedented among modern elections. This makes this a unique election: while Biden is expected to gain the popular vote, the race is very competitive at the level of battleground states, which will determine the Electoral College and the winner. Biden has shown gains with suburban, women, and elderly voters; Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016 with Black and Hispanic voters, urban, and middle aged voters.” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and lead pollster of HarrisX.
“Voters are polarized and anxious, but almost universally agree that all votes should be counted, and they want the candidates not to claim victory prematurely and accept the results of the election,” added Nesho.
A High Turnout Election is Expected for Both Democrats and Republicans.
HarrisX data estimates over 149 million Americans will vote in today’s election, surpassing the turnout rates of the 2008 election, making the 2020 election the highest turnout election in modern American history. Over 100 million Americans are reported do have voted by mail and through in-person early voting, which HarrisX polling indicates are 67 percent of registered voters. Another 33 percent, or 49 million registered voters, are expected to vote on Election Day.
Joe Biden Enters Election Day with an Early Vote Advantage, but Donald Trump is Expected to Win Election Day Voting.
Joe Biden leads the final HarrisX national horserace numbers among likely voters by four points (49 to 45 percent). He continues to lead by four points when considering leaners in a combined horserace/trial heat between the two candidates (52 to 48 percent), due largely to the low number of undecided voters in this election. The comparatively low number of undecided voters in this race have caused the horserace numbers to remain highly stable over the last six weeks.
Biden enters the race with a 65 to 35 percent advantage in voting by mail but is statistically tied 48 to 52 percent with Trump on the in-person vote before Election Day, for a net early vote advantage of 59 to 41 percent. Donald Trump is expected to win the Election Day vote by a margin of 62 to 38 percent.
The polling shows Biden leading among suburban and urban voters, female voters, younger (18-34) and older voters (both 50+ and 65+ cohorts), especially retirees, minority voters, and working class voters earning less than $75,000 per year.
Trump is outperforming his 2016 numbers among middle aged voters (35-49), Black, and Hispanic voters, as well as winning men, the rural vote, and high-income earners. Both candidates are splitting the independent vote.
Battleground State Polling in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania shows Toss-Up Races.
Last week, HarrisX and The Hill released the results of a final wave of battleground polls in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania which continued to show competitive, toss-up races in each of these states.
Trump and Biden were statistically tied among likely voters in Florida (Biden 50 / Trump 47) and North Carolina (Biden 49 / Trump 48), and Biden led Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania (Biden 51 / Trump 46).
American voters are concerned about civil unrest following the election and regardless of political affiliation want the candidates to pledge they will encourage their supporters to accept the results of the election.
Voters are anxious heading into Election Day. 81% of registered voters are concerned about civil unrest following the election, and 79% want candidates to pledge that they will encourage their supporters to accept the results of the election.
75% of all voters across party affiliation view it as inappropriate for a candidate to claim victory before all the votes have been counted. An overwhelming majority, 84%, want to make sure that every legal vote is correctly counted versus having the results of the election as soon as possible.
Only 17% believe we will know the results of the election by mid-night on Tuesday November 3rd, but 64% of voters expect results by the end of this week.
While 59% of voters think it is likely there will be voter fraud in the election, 71% trust state election officials to declare the winner of the election. Only small numbers of voters trust the media (16%) and the candidates themselves (13%) to declare victory.
For access to the crosstabs of the final pre-election national poll and the last wave of battleground state polls click the buttons below